Originally written on Mar 10, 2022 (updated February 10, 2023)
MATIC Price Potential
60% of all of DeFi is on Ethereum. So, when it comes to Decentralized Finance, Ethereum is the elephant in the room. But ethereum has a problem. The blockchain is slow, and the fees are high.
Polygon has the ability to solve both of these problems. And, 2024 could be a big year for the Polygon blockchain and for MATIC. 2024 is when sharding will happen on Ethereum. And, 2024 is when Polygon could become a clear winner in powering Defi on Ethereum. So, the MATIC price clearly has a lot of upside potential.
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On Mar 10, 2022, MATIC was $1.45, down 50% from it’s all time high of $2.92. But, I believe that there is a lot of potential for MATIC in the coming months.
Polygon’s Role in Ethereum Scaling
Layer Two Blockchains which will play a dominant role in Ethereum scaling. Specifically, L2 zk-rollup technology will play a dominant role in Ethereum sharding.
On June 30, 2020, Vitalik Buterin posted on twitter, “ETH2 scaling for data will be available before ETH2 scaling for general computation. This implies that rollups will be the dominant scaling paradigm for at least a couple of years: first ~2-3k TPS with eth1 as data layer, then ~100k TPS with eth2 (phase 1).”
ETH2 scaling for general computation is scheduled to be released in 2025. So, this means that for until 2025, rollups will be the dominant scaling paradigm, including during phase 1 of Ethereum (into 2024).
Arbitrum is currently the leader in rollup technology for Ethereum. Of the top five L2 networks, Arbitrum is by far the most used. In May of 2022, it had $2 billion total value locked (TVL) in smart contracts, and it accounted for about 50 percent of the L2 transactions.
There are a couple of issues with Arbitrum. First, it does not have a token; rather, it uses ETH. Second, while it reduces gas fees, to execute a transaction on Arbitrum, you will pay about 14 percent of what you would pay on the Ethereum blockchain.
Polygon’s MATIC has two advantages over Arbitrum. First, it is significantly cheaper than Arbitrum. Second, MATIC may have a role in Polygon’s zk-rollup tech.
The L2 zk-rollup battle is currently being waged between Starkware, Loopring and Matter Labs’ zkSync, and all of these technologies have potential to be the L2 zk-rollup leaders for ETH scaling. However, Polygon has committed $1 billion to zk-rollup solutions. Polygon is currently developing two major zk-rollup solutions: Polygon Zero and Polygon Hermez. In January, Polygon announced that Polygon Zero (or Plonky2) is 100x faster than any of the existing alternatives and natively compatible with Ethereum. Polygon is committed to being a leader for ZK scaling of Ethereum.
My MATIC Price Prediction
ZK scaling is the future of Ethereum scaling. And, Polygon will likely play a significant role in that future. So, I am stacking my MATIC. My MATIC price prediction is $5.00 or more by the end of 2024.