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Originally published on Nov 22, 2022 (updated February 11, 2023)
Price Prediction Folly
Have you been fishing for the bitcoin price bottom? Allow me to explain why I think that bottom fishing is folly.
Over the next 6 months, the recession will deepen, and interest rates will rise. The economy will get worse. The crypto market and the stock market will face headwinds. So if your time horizon is 6 months or less, it’s best to be cautious. Caution wins the day! On the other hand, if your investment time horizon is two years or more, then there is no need to continue to fish for the bottom. It is a good time to be a buyer.
The TOTAL crypto market has seen a 75% decline since the high in November of last year. Historically crypto has declined 85% during past crypto winters. Many are saying that the bottom is not in yet. BTC and ETH could go lower. However, if your time horizon is two years or more, there’s no need to continue to fish for the bottom.
Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful
For investors, the best time to buy is when nobody is buying. The best time to buy is when everyone is a bear. And, I don’t know too many people who are bullish at this point in time. Warren Buffett once said that it is wise for investors to be “fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Fear is the motif of the current time. Most are asking, “When is the next domino to fall?” and “How low will it go?”
No one knows exactly when the bottom is going to be in. And, unless you’re a fortune teller, you shouldn’t try to find the exact bottom. BTC and ETH are both trading well below their 50 and 200 day moving averages, and the weekly relative strength index for BTC is below 30. Moreover, BTC and ETH are down 77% from this time last year. Bitcoin is at a two-year low. Ethereum is also close to a two-year low. That should be enough for most long-term investors to pull the trigger. Again, if you are a swing trader, let the bottom fishing continue. But if you’re a long-term investor, there’s no need to continue to fish for the bottom. Just remember, be rational, and don’t invest funds that you will need in the near term.
If you lack confidence in stacking crypto during a bear market cycle, consider taking my “Crypto Essentials for Beginners” course. This course is designed to bolster your confidence, to make you less fearful and more confident. Knowledge is power. Arm yourself with the right crypto knowledge to capitalize on the current opportunities.
If you are not ready to take a paid class, I also teach a Sunday webinar at 4:00 p.m. ET. It’s free.